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Key Takeaways:
- ๐ต The dollar weakened to a more than one-year low against the euro and sterling following revised job data.
- ๐ฃ๏ธ Markets await Federal Reserve Chair Powellโs speech for clues on labor market view and potential rate cuts.
- ๐ Fed officials are leaning towards an interest rate cut at their next meeting in September.
- ๐ Traders are pricing in a 38% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next month.
- ๐ Concerns of a recession led to larger rate cut expectations on unexpected job gains and increased unemployment rate.
- ๐ European data may not support the euro’s strength, signaling a potential technical move in FX.
- ๐ผ The U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported
- ๐ The revised job gains suggest a slower economic recovery than initially thought
- ๐ The discrepancy was due to the misclassification of workers during the pandemic
- ๐ The Bureau of Labor Statistics will make changes to prevent future errors
- ๐ผ US job growth in the past year was weaker than initially reported
- ๐ 818,000 fewer jobs in March 2024 than initially estimated
- ๐ Largest downward revision since 2009
- ๐ต Average monthly job gain from April 2023 to March 2024 was 173,500
- ๐ Downward adjustments were limited to the private sector
- ๐ญ Job growth still historically strong despite revisions
- ๐ Preliminary revisions expected to impact Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions
- ๐ Revision process highlights need for accurate economic data
- ๐ Economic data is revised often for better accuracy
- ๐ BLS conducts annual benchmark revisions for employment data
- ๐ท QCEW provides more comprehensive employment data at a lag
- ๐ 818,000 fewer jobs added to the U.S. economy than initially reported
- ๐ Unemployment rate rose to 4% in August
- ๐ต Average hourly earnings increased by 0.6%
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
- ๐ฃ๏ธ Markets await Federal Reserve Chair Powellโs speech for clues on labor market view and potential rate cuts.
- ๐ Fed officials are leaning towards an interest rate cut at their next meeting in September.
- ๐ Traders are pricing in a 38% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next month.
- ๐ Preliminary revisions expected to impact Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions
Employment Data Revisions
- ๐ผ The U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported
- ๐ The revised job gains suggest a slower economic recovery than initially thought
- ๐ The discrepancy was due to the misclassification of workers during the pandemic
- ๐ The Bureau of Labor Statistics will make changes to prevent future errors
Job Growth and Economic Recovery
- ๐ผ US job growth in the past year was weaker than initially reported
- ๐ 818,000 fewer jobs in March 2024 than initially estimated
- ๐ Largest downward revision since 2009
- ๐ต Average monthly job gain from April 2023 to March 2024 was 173,500
- ๐ญ Job growth still historically strong despite revisions
Euro Strength and Market Impact
- ๐ต The dollar weakened to a more than one-year low against the euro and sterling following revised job data.
- ๐ European data may not support the euro’s strength, signaling a potential technical move in FX.