π΅ The dollar was mixed after a significant downward jobs revision
π Market confusion and choppy trading occurred due to the delayed release of the data
π€ The revised data may not change the current economic outlook significantly
π Traders are pricing in a 33% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September
π Markets are highly sensitive to jobs data for signs of economic worsening
π£ Clarity on the size of a rate cut and future borrowing costs will be sought from Fed Chair Powell’s comments
πΌ US economy revised employment data by 818,000 for March 2024
π Largest downward revisions seen in professional and business services industry
π½οΈ Leisure & hospitality industry saw the second-largest downward revision
π΅ Monthly job additions in the US economy revised down from 242,000 to 174,000
π Revision does not change broader trends in GDP growth, stock market, and consumption
π Recent signs of slowing labor market prompting discussions on Federal Reserve’s monetary policy
π Weak July jobs report showed second-weakest monthly job additions and highest unemployment rate in nearly three years
π Recent labor market updates show slowing but not heading for a downturn
π οΈ Fed Chair to speak at Jackson Hole Symposium, labor market expected to be key talking point
π± Markets fully pricing in an interest rate cut by the end of Fed’s September meeting
πΌ US job growth in the past year was weaker than initially estimated by 818,000 jobs in March.
π‘ Markets should note that these adjustments are not job losses, but rather adjustments to the job count.
π Downward adjustments were mainly in the private sector, with significant revisions in professional services, information, leisure/hospitality, and manufacturing industries.
π The labor department’s estimates are preliminary and will not be finalized until February 2025.
πΊπΈ The revised data provides an important indicator of the overall health of the US labor market and has implications for Federal Reserve policy decisions.
π΅ Market mood to sell dollars, potentially due to US job number revisions
π DXY sell-off amid speculation over weaker job market and lower Fed rates
π Eurozone current account surplus hits over EUR50bn, boosting euro
π§― EUR/USD faces resistance, but low volatility hints at potential sharp move higher
π΅ USD/MXN and USD/BRL rally despite weaker dollar trend
π΅π± National Bank of Poland governor hints at rate cuts in interview, causing zloty sell-off and rates market rally
π PLN’s rally expected to end with bias turning bearish, EUR/PLN 4.290 indicated as first stop
US Jobs Data Revisions and Market Impact:
πΌ The US economy revised employment data by 818,000 for March 2024, showing significant adjustments.
π΅ The monthly job additions in the US were revised down, impacting market sentiment and trading activity.
π Downward revisions were observed in various sectors, highlighting areas of weakness in the labor market.
π€ Despite the revisions, the broader economic trends remain intact, influencing Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
π οΈ Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium will provide insights into future monetary policy.
Currency Movements and Central Banks:
π΅ The dollar faced mixed reactions following the jobs revision, with traders pricing in rate cut probabilities.
π DXY experienced a sell-off amid speculations of a weaker job market and potential Fed rate cuts.
π The Eurozone’s current account surplus boosted the euro, while other currencies like PLN faced volatility.
π± Markets are anticipating interest rate cuts, with central banks around the world hinting at policy adjustments.