Key Takeaways:
S&P Global predicts Ukraine will default on its external commercial obligations
Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency credit rating has been downgraded to "CC"
Expectation for Ukraine to initiate debt restructuring with private creditors soon
Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused the deadliest war in Europe in over 70 years
High degree of economic uncertainty for Ukraine in the medium-term- S&P’s outlook on Ukraine’s foreign currency rating is negative
Major conflicts fought by Ukraine occurred from Kyivan Rus’ times to the present day
Ukraine didn’t have independent states in the late 18th century due to rule by powerful empires
Ukrainian Cossacks were involved in conflicts with the Ottoman Empire and the Crimean Khanate
Russo-Ukrainian War with the Russian Federation started in 2014
Kievan Rus’ wars up to 1240 involved various principalities and neighboring entities
After Kievan Rus’ split, Galicia–Volhynia controlled most of modern Ukraine for a century
Zaporozhian Cossacks, Cossack Hetmanate involved in wars with various kingdoms and empires
1917-1922 saw conflicts involving different Ukrainian states and anti-bolshevik formations
Ukrainian SSR incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1922, leading to no major armed conflicts until 1939
Ukraine is likely to default on its external commercial obligations - The default is expected to lead to a significant depreciation of the national currency
- The situation could have broader implications for the global economy and international financial markets.
Ukrainian History and Current Financial Crisis
The recent financial crisis in Ukraine, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict with Russia, has led to S&P Global predicting that the country will default on its external commercial obligations. This default has resulted in a downgrade of Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency credit rating to "CC," indicating a high risk of default.
The history of Ukraine is marked by numerous conflicts and wars dating back to the time of Kyivan Rus’. From battles with neighboring states’ armies to the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2014, Ukraine has faced significant challenges throughout its history.
The geopolitical turmoil in the region has also played a role in Ukraine’s economic uncertainty, with S&P’s outlook on the country’s foreign currency rating being negative. The expectation for Ukraine to initiate debt restructuring with private creditors further highlights the challenges the country is facing.
The broader implications of Ukraine’s financial crisis are also significant, with the potential for a significant depreciation of the national currency and repercussions for the global economy and international financial markets. As Ukraine navigates these challenges, its history of resilience in the face of conflict may provide a guide for its future path forward.