Market Review 23-11

Market Review 23-11

Forex News

When are the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?


German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.

The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 52.2 for November, unchanged from the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen lower at 53.5 in the reported month versus 53.7 last.

The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is seen arriving at 52.2, same as that booked previously while the index for the services sector is expected to drop to 54.5 this month versus 54.7 seen in the previous month.

How could they affect EUR/USD?

An upside surprise in the manufacturing PMI readings could add extra legs to the recent upside in the Euro that could drive the EUR/USD pair back above the 1.1450 level. A break above which the recovery momentum could gain traction, with eyes set on 1.1467/73 (Nov 19, 20 highs). A sustained break above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1500 (psychological levels).

On the flip side, if the readings show a big-than expected drop, the spot could head back below the 1.1400 (round number), below which the next supports are placed at 1.1363/57 (Nov 21, 20 lows) and 1.1334 (classic daily S3)

About German/ Eurozone flash PMIs

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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Euro, sterling steady as traders look to Brexit progress


The euro and sterling edged higher against the dollar on Friday after Britain and the European Union agreed a draft text setting out their future relationship before a summit on Sunday.

Traders were cautiously optimistic about the draft declaration agreed by the United Kingdom and the European Commission which outlined how the trading relationship, security and other matters will work once the divorce is finalised.

The euro and sterling traded marginally higher on Friday, having advanced overnight by 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent respectively.

Traders are still waiting for more clarity around the Brexit deal as it faces a rocky ride once it reaches a deeply divided British parliament, with hardline eurosceptic andstaunch pro-EU factions, and various shades of gray in-between.

“A full read through of the text suggests a lot of important details need to be clarified. ..this document is not convincing the market that it will pass through parliament,” said David de Garish, director economics and markets at NAB.

He said the market is still positioned with a short bias in the pound, so there is scope for a move of 5-10 percent if a breakthrough deal is achieved.

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Stock Market News

Day Ahead: Top 3 Things to Watch


Here’s a preview of the top 3 things that could rock markets Friday.

1. Markets Closing Early

The stock market will likely see higher-than-normal volatility Friday with an early market close and many investors and traders still away for the Thanksgiving holiday.

U.S. stock and bond markets were closed Thursday.

On Friday, stock markets will close at 1:00 PM ET (18:00 GMT). The bond markets close at 2:00 PM ET.

Stocks moved into Turkey Day on a higher note, with the broader market managing to stay in the green after a late selloff.

2. Retail in Focus on Black Friday

There are no earnings scheduled, but retail stocks will be closely watched for any reaction to Black Friday holiday sales as retailers slash prices and hold promotional events.

Known for its long lines and, at times, pandemonium to get marked down items, Black Friday was traditionally when retailers moved into the black for the year as holiday shopping began.

Now it’s an event unto itself that starts Thanksgiving evening – and for some retailers earlier – and goes through until Cyber Monday.

Big-name retail stocks were hit hard in the recent market selloff as they reported earnings, with investors piling out of companies that reported strong numbers, like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), and those that disappointed, like Target (NYSE:TGT).

What may make it difficult for investors is that retailers tend not to break out numbers for the Black Friday period, so much of the evidence on strength or weakness will be anecdotal. Twitter feeds for retail analysts will be closely watched for estimates on foot traffic and popular promotions.

3. Manufacturing and Services PMI on the Calendar

There will be one batch of data for the market to react to Friday.

Markit will releases its preliminary measurements of manufacturing and services activity at 9:45 AM ET.

On average, economists expect the Markit manufacturing purchase managers’ index (PMI) to stay steady compared with October. The November services PMI is forecast to tick up slightly.

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Nissan aims to nominate new chairman by around December 20


Nissan Motor Co aims to nominate a new chairman within a month or two, hopefully before its next board meeting slated for around December 20, a source familiar with the matter said, after the automaker ousted Carlos Ghosn as chairman on Thursday.

The nomination will be done by the Japanese automaker’s newly created advisory committee that includes the company’s three independent directors.

The new chairman would hold the post “at least” until Nissan’s next shareholder meeting. No decision on whether to hold an extraordinary shareholder meeting has been made, the source added. The next regular meeting is expected in June 2019.

Another special committee led by the independent directors to discuss improving governance based on third-party advice will then likely propose setting up a nomination committee to select a permanent chairman, said the source, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

“It’s a two stage process,” the source said. “First we have to decide on a temporary chairman as soon as possible.”

Nissan was not immediately available for comment on Friday, a public holiday in Japan.

Nissan’s board voted unanimously to oust Ghosn, who was arrested on Monday over allegations of financial misconduct including under-reporting of his remuneration and personal use of company assets.

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Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin Falls 10% In Rout


Bitcoin was trading at $4,263.5 by 20:22 (01:22 GMT) on the Index on Friday, down 10.11% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage loss since November 19.

The move downwards pushed Bitcoin’s market cap down to $74.7B, or 53.81% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, Bitcoin’s market cap was $241.2B.

Bitcoin had traded in a range of $4,249.7 to $4,430.3 in the previous twenty-four hours.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has seen a drop in value, as it lost 23.44%. The volume of Bitcoin traded in the twenty-four hours to time of writing was $4.6B or 34.25% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. It has traded in a range of $4,249.7339 to $5,727.8755 in the past 7 days.

At its current price, Bitcoin is still down 78.54% from its all-time high of $19,870.62 set on December 17, 2017.

Elsewhere in cryptocurrency trading

XRP was last at $0.41527 on the Index, down 9.70% on the day.

Ethereum was trading at $120.22 on the Index, a loss of 16.19%.

XRP’s market cap was last at $16.8B or 12.14% of the total cryptocurrency market cap, while Ethereum’s market cap totaled $12.7B or 9.17% of the total cryptocurrency market value.

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