Market Review 12-09

Market Review 12-09

EURGBP Price Analysis: Longer-Term Chart Points Lower

By Nick Cawley

EURGBP driven lower by positive Brexit commentary.

A look at the weekly chart shows that this move has more to go with the pair making three lower highs/lower lows in the past three weeks, a negative technical set-up. EURGBP also nears the 20- and 50-day crossover near 0.8850, ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8845.

Ahead, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will announce their latest monetary policy settings on Thursday – no changes expected from either central bank – but the accompanying commentary and press conference may give clues to future moves. UK monetary policy is currently on-hold until the Brexit outcome is clear, although the BoE keep reiterating that future policy is data dependent. Current thinking is that the next UK rate hike will be triggered in September 2019 although if current strong UK data continues, and Brexit is agreed, the May ‘Super Thursday’ meeting may come into play.

The ECB in contrast will continue with their accommodative policy as inflation refuses to move towards target. Growth in the single-bloc is slowing down and the fear is that, despite turning the QE tap off at the end of the year, the euro-zone may need another boost.

We turned positive on GBP – crosses because on GBPUSD weekly technical outlook and GBP Fundamental Outlook.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2018/09/11/EURGBP-Price-Analysis-Longer-Term-Chart-Points-Lower.html

 

AUDUSD Breach of Crucial Support to Pave Way for 2016 Lows

By Justin McQueen

TRADE WARS CONTINUE TO GRIP THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

The ongoing trade war dispute between the US and China continue to weigh on the Australian Dollar with sellers in full control.

The Australian Dollar has failed to receive a notable recovery from the persistent losses from the beginning for the year. As such, AUDUSD is now trading at the lowest level since Q1 2016 with bears eying the Jan lows at 0.6827.

Widening rate differentials given the Fed’s tightening path calls for lower Aussie.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2018/09/11/AUDUSD-Breach-of-Crucial-Support-to-Pave-Way-for-2016-Lows-.html

 

CHF: Swiss Franc News, Research and Forecasts

By Joaquin Monfort

Swiss Franc Could be Changing Trend

The Swiss Franc has turned decidedly lower this week and our studies suggest further losses are in the pipeline.

The fundamental driver in the currency’s about-turn appears to be improved sentiment on the back of comments from Italy’s finance minister that he will not exceed the EU’s budgetary rules and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said he thought a Brexit deal was close to being agreed.

With two major sources of risk now off the table the Franc, which is a safe-haven currency, and strengthens on bad news, actually fell on the good news.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/chf/9891-swiss-franc-could-be-changing-trend

 

USD/JPY making a push for 111.50

By Joshua Gibson

The USD/JPY is trading just beneath 111.50 for Tuesday after bounding higher in the early day’s action.

Asia session traders pushed the Yen down as risk sentiment recovered after markets grew tired of being pushed down by trade war angst, and the Dollar-Yen pairing is bumping higher heading into European markets.

US and Japanese economic data are both light in the upcoming sessions, but markets will be bracing for tariff headlines in the coming days ahead of Friday’s US CPI reading.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-making-a-push-for-11150-201809110447

 

Oil rises as US sanctions on Iran squeeze supply

By Reuters

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply despite efforts by Washington to get other producers to increase output.

“The impact of the U.S. sanctions on Iran is firmly being felt,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil. “The biggest worry is obviously the amount of Iranian oil that is disappearing from the market.”

Washington has told its allies to reduce imports of Iranian oil and several Asian buyers, including South Korea, Japan and India appear to be falling in line.

A group of OPEC and non-OPEC producers have been voluntarily withholding supplies since January 2017 to tighten markets, but with crude prices up by more than 40 percent since then and markets significantly tighter, there has been pressure on producers to raise output.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/oil-markets-us-sanctions-on-iran-global-oil-supply-in-focus.html

 

Trump’s sanctions on Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel

By Yen Nee Lee

U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy industry, when they come into effect in November, could potentially drive oil prices above $100 per barrel, according to an industry expert.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from an international agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program has resulted in a round of sanctions being re-imposed on the country’s financial, automotive, aviation and metals sectors. The U.S. State Department has set Nov. 4 as a deadline for Iranian oil buyers to completely cut their purchases to avoid American sanctions.

Iran is currently one of the largest oil exporters in the world. Cutting off Iranian supplies entirely would push oil prices above $100 per barrel because other major producers could not easily fill the void, said Fesharaki.

“At the moment, what is holding (oil prices) from going up is the fear, macroeconomic fears,” he said. “If the U.S.-China deal is settled, the price of oil only has one way to go: up.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/trump-iran-sanctions-driving-oil-prices-to-100facts-global-energy.html

 

Amazon will dethrone Walmart as the No. 1 retailer of apparel this year, predicts Wells Fargo

By Thomas Franck

  • Wells Fargo says Amazon will be the No. 1 seller of apparel in the U.S. in 2018 and ups its price target on the Seattle-based retailer.
  • The e-commerce behemoth’s apparel gross sales is expected to top $30 billion this year and leapfrog incumbent Walmart for the top spot.
  • Wells Fargo expects shares to top $2,300 in 12 months, more than 17 percent upside from Friday’s close.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/amazon-to-usurp-walmart-as-top-apparel-retailer-in-2018-wells-fargo.html

 

Morgan Stanley’s Stock May Drop 8% as Growth Slows

By Michael J. Kramer

Morgan Stanley’s (MS) stock has fallen by more than 18% from its March highs, finding itself down by more than 8% on the year. The stock is underperforming the S&P 500, which has risen by more than 8%. Technical analysis suggests things may get a lot worse for the investment bank. The stock may fall by more than 8% from its current price of approximately $48.05. Should that happen the stock would be down more than 22% from its highs.

The daily chart shows the stock nearing technical support at $47.25. It also shows a long-term downtrend which has been in place since the March highs. The stock failed to break free of that downtrend several times, recently failing at the beginning of September. If the stock falls below support at $47.20, it could fall as low as $44.10 a drop of more than 8%.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/morgan-stanleys-stock-may-drop-8-growth-slows/

 

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