Important to look ahead! Bear in mind Fed Interest Rate Decision – United States Wed, Jun 13, 2018
In the US, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve meets at intervals of five to eight weeks, in which they announce their latest decisions. A rate hike tends to boost the local currency, as it is understood as a sign of a healthy inflation. A rate cut, on the other hand, is seen as a sign of economic and inflationary woes and, therefore, tends to weaken the local currency. If rates remain unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the FOMC statement, and whether the tone is hawkish, or dovish over future developments of inflation.
Australian Dollar Could Well Feel Rate Differential Chills Again
By David Cottle
FUNDAMENTAL AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: BEARISH
- Australian Dollar just had a roller coaster week
- What strong GDP gave, trade and emerging-market worries took away
- This week it has to face the Fed
The coming week will probably seek market interest focused on Thursday in the Asia Pacific region. That’s when Australian employment numbers will see daylight. These are expected to come in quite strongly, but the Australian economy has been a job-creation machine for some time without much impact on inflation or, crucially, the Reserve Banks’ relaxed attitude to raising interest rates. Futures markets don’t expect any increase in the Official Cash Rate’s 1.50% record low until the end of 2019.
And the US Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy decision is also due Thursday Asia Pacific time. The central bank is widely expected to raise rates once more, and markets will of course be keen on any steer as to how much more often it may do so this year.
With that in mind, it’s a bearish call this week.
Gold bulls making a fresh attempt to conquer $1300 mark
By Haresh Menghani
Gold reversed an early dip to the $1293 support area and has now jumped to fresh session tops, with bulls making a fresh attempt to lift it back above the $1300 mark.
A fresh wave of global risk aversion trade, as depicted by a sea of red across European equity markets, underpinned demand for traditional safe-haven assets and was seen as one of the key factors behind a modest rebound.
The risk-off mood was evident from the ongoing retracement slide in the US Treasury bond yields, which provided an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal and further collaborated to a modest uptick over the past hour or so.
The positive factors, to a larger extent, were negated by a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand, which might continue to contribute towards keeping a lid on any meaningful up-move for dollar-denominated commodities – like gold.
EUR/USD And GBP/JPY: Super Clean Sell Signals
By Alpari Research & Analysis
First one is the EUR/USD, which on a daily chart bounces from the horizontal resistance and creates a candle with a long head. What is more, on the H1, we can see a head and shoulders pattern and a bearish flag formation. All that together is super negative.
Second one is the GBP/JPY, where the sell signal is one of the strongest I have recently seen on the whole FX market. The price bounced from the combination of three important trend lines and went lower. Then, we broke a combination of three crucial supports (two horizontal and one dynamic). Dynamic one is the lower line of the flag, which activates this pattern. All factors are pointing south.