Market Review 07-09

Market Review 07-09

US NFP preview – Nomura

By Joshua Gibson

Traders are looking ahead this week to Friday’s release of non -farm payrolls for August for some idea of whether the dollar might continue its gains since last week against the euro, yen and others.

Nomura analysts are calling for a better-than-expected reading as they expect the strong reporting trend to continue into August.

“Consensus expectations:
Headline change expected +198K, prior +157K
Unemployment rate expected 3.8%, prior 3.9%
Average hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m, prior +0.3%
Average hourly earnings expected +2.7% y/y, prior +2.7%

After a 157k gain in nonfarm payroll employment in July, a somewhat stronger report than the headline reading suggests, we expect a solid 215k increase in NFP employment in August. Part of the below-forecast reading for July was attributable to unusual declines in certain industries that could revert in August.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nfp-preview-nomura-rbc-201809060027

Dollar bulls are hoping that the NFP prediction might prove more accurate this time to push USD higher – whatever happens, big movements are expected around the release, so tune in on Friday afternoon.

 

USDRUB Chart Pointing to Further Gains as Russian Ruble Sinks

By Martin Essex

The USDRUB daily chart is looking bullish after the formation of a pennant pattern. This is a continuation pattern as a steep rise, known as the flagpole, is followed by a consolidation period within converging trendlines. It is often followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the original advance.

This technical picture has formed as further sanctions against Russia have become increasing likely in the wake of the poisoning of a former Russian spy and his daughter in the English town of Salisbury – which the UK says was committed by two agents working for Russian military intelligence.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/currency_crosses/2018/09/06/USDRUB-Chart-Pointing-to-Further-Gains-as-Russian-Ruble-Sinks.html

 

Apple’s Netflix-competitor video service will make more than $4 billion by 2025, Morgan Stanley says

By Tae Kim

  • Morgan Stanley reiterates its overweight rating for Apple shares, saying investors are underestimating the strength of its services business.
  • The firm’s analyst Katy Huberty predicts Apple’s stand-alone video offering can generate sales of $4.4 billion in six years from an estimated $500 million in 2019.
  • Huberty raised her price target to $245 from $232 for Apple shares, representing 7 percent upside from Tuesday’s closing price.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/05/apple-video-service-will-make-4-billion-by-2025-morgan-stanley-says.html

 

EUR/CHF looks poised for a downside break towards 1.10

By Justin Low

Sellers will be eyeing a move towards 1.1000 in such an event and unless the SNB steps in, there is still good reason to believe that the pair has more room to the downside. With geopolitical tensions between US and China set to step up a gear, we also have Italy’s budget worries, uncertainty surrounding a Brexit deal, fears of contagion arising from melting emerging markets, and a potential future trade dispute between US and EU all among the geopolitical concoction and that makes for a very potent mix to underpin the swissie.

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/!/eurchf-looks-poised-for-a-downside-break-20180906

 

Buy Caterpillar as mining, oil and gas producers replace equipment, says Deutsche Bank

By Thomas Franck

Resuming coverage on Caterpillar with a buy rating, Deutsche Bank’s Chad Dillard says the machinery manufacturer has years of strong income ahead.

He estimates that replacement sales could be so good that mining and oil and gas income could grow at 30 percent and 10 percent, respectively, each year for the next few years.

Deutsche Bank has told clients that Caterpillar is likely to see an uptick in revenue and share price as mining and oil companies look to renew aging equipment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/05/buy-caterpillar-as-commodity-companies-renew-equipment-says-deutsche.html

 

Buy Walmart shares because its sales growth will outperform other retailers: Barclays

By Tae Kim

Walmart’s surprising positive sales momentum is just getting started, according to Barclays.

Barclays reinstates coverage on Walmart shares with an overweight rating, predicting the retailer’s store investments will pay dividends.

Analyst Karen Short predicts Walmart’s sales growth will outperform its industry peers.

Short initiated her price target at $110 for Walmart shares, representing 15 percent upside to Tuesday’s close.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/05/buy-walmart-shares-because-its-sales-growth-will-outperform-other-retailers-barclays.html

 

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