US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Worried but the signs are steady
This Friday 12:30 GMT we will be seeing the release of the monthly Job’s Report! Non-farm Payrolls are coming!
So, what are Nonfarm Payrolls (abbreviated – NFP)?
Basically, it is a measurement of how many jobs were created or destroyed during the last month for the Whole Economy of the US.
It is one of the historical leading indicators for the Economy and the Financial Markets in general.
What affects does it historically have on the markets?
Usually a positive result in the NFP pushes USD higher (USDCAD, USDJPY and USDCHF higher – EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD lower).
According to the analysts, non-farm payrolls are predicted to add 185,000 in May following April’s 263,000 increase. Manufacturing will gain 5,000 positions after the prior month’s 4,000. Annual earnings are forecast to be unchanged at 3.2% and the workweek to rise 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims have been at or close to five-decade lows for the better part of two years.
Initial claims bear no sign of building problems for US employment.
The precipitous drop in additions to ADP payrolls tilts the NFP risk to the downside but it is most likely a single event.
Any one of the above problems may push the US and the world economy into a more serious slowdown or recession but as of the first week of June they are clouds on the horizon not a storm.
EUR/USD: Stage looks set for a rally on dismal US NFP data
With investors paring back bets for an ECB rate cut, the stage looks set for EUR/USD to rally on the back of a weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Further, the short-term technical profile looks bullish. EUR/USD created bullish candle on Thursday. A close below 1.12 would neutralize the immediate bullish view. On the other hand, a break above 1.1309 (Wednesday’s high) would further strengthen the short-term bullish case.
Check Trading Central’s Opinion below (3rd Party Registered Investment Adviser)
Trading Central – EURUSD: Recommending a sell down to 1.1100 if below 1.1330.
Trading Central – USDCHF: Recommending a sell down to 0.9785 if below 1.0100.
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