Market Review 05-10

Market Review 05-10

Nonfarm payrolls expectations – Nomura

By Ross J Burland

Analysts at Nomura explained that they expect nonfarm payroll employment to increase 180k in September, a slight deceleration from the 201k pace in August and just below the six-month average of 192k.

“Our forecast remains consistent with an economy growing at roughly 3% and would be well above the pace of employment growth required to absorb new labor market entrants. ”

“Employment indicators during the month remained in healthy territory with low initial jobless claims and elevated regional business survey employment indices. We do not expect Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in the Carolinas around mid-September, to affect September’s payroll employment numbers materially.”

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nonfarm-payrolls-expectations-nomura-201810032029

 

Sterling could plummet to $1.15 if UK leader May resigns, analyst says

By Ryan Browne

  • Stephen Isaacs, chairman of the investment committee at Alvine Capital, warned that the British pound could tumble to $1.15.
  • He said U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May “has to resign” as her so-called Chequers Brexit deal “will be in absolute tatters.”
  • May on Wednesday faced an explicit call from fellow Conservative lawmaker James Duddridge to resign.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/sterling-could-plummet-to-1point15-if-uk-leader-may-resigns-analyst-says.html

 

Goldman predicts Alibaba shares will rally more than 50% in one year

By Tae Kim

Alibaba will thrive as it dominates new markets in China, according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm reiterated its buy and conviction list ratings for Alibaba shares, predicting strong growth in the company’s cloud computing and financial businesses.

“We remain impressed with Alibaba’s overall leverage to China consumption growth given its strategy, positioning, ability to build new businesses (such as new retail) and its execution,” analyst Piyush Mubayi said in a note to clients Wednesday. “We expect Alibaba to continue to invest for future growth on multiple fronts.”

Mubayi raised his 12-month price target to $247 from $241, representing 54 percent upside to Tuesday’s close.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/goldman-predicts-alibaba-shares-will-rally-more-than-50-percent-in-one-year.html

 

Facebook faces $1.6 billion fine as top EU regulator officially opens probe into data breach

By Arjun Kharpal

  • The Irish Data Protection Commissioner has opened a formal investigation into the Facebook data breach.
  • Ireland’s data watchdog is the regulator which has oversight over Facebook’s practices in the European Union an will decide which, if any, punishment to dish out to the social networking giant.
  • One major punishment could be a maximum fine of $1.63 billion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/facebook-data-breach-top-eu-regulator-officially-opens-investigation.html

 

EURUSD Sliding Towards Technical Support – Will it Hold?

By Nick Cawley

EURUSD – BEARS REMAIN IN CONTROL
EURUSD continues to move lower on a combination of a resurgent US dollar – fueled by hawkish Fed talk – and a weak fundamental and technical Euro backdrop. And as the pair move lower, support levels are likely to creak under selling pressure. Italian government bond yields refuse to move lower with the closely watched 10-year currently trading with a yield of 3.35%, just 10 basis points below its recent multi-year high. The recently announced Italian budget will continue to worry the market, and depress the Euro, before Brussels gives its view on the proposal later in the month.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2018/10/04/EURUSD-Sliding-Towards-Technical-Support-Will-it-Hold.html

 

Traders bet on oil at $100 as Iran sanctions loom

By Devika Krishna Kumar, Amanda Cooper

Oil traders have piled into wagers that U.S. crude oil could surge to $100 a barrel by next year, a milestone that until recently many considered unthinkable due to record U.S. production growth and relatively flat global demand.

But the imminent return of U.S. sanctions on Iran and bottlenecks keeping U.S. oil from getting to market have fueled a rally that has taken benchmark oil prices to four-year highs.

While big producing nations say supply is ample, hedge funds and speculators are increasingly skeptical of that argument, betting the market could rally further as sanctions on Iran’s crude exports return on Nov. 4.

The bullishness is visible in the U.S. options market. The number of open positions on $100 December 2019 WTI call options CL1000L9 – bets on futures hitting that price by the end of 2019 – has risen by 30 percent in the last week to a record 31,000 lots, according to CME data.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-prices/traders-bet-on-oil-at-100-as-iran-sanctions-loom-idUSKCN1ME0C2

 

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