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Key Takeaways:
Dollar rises to fresh 2-1/2 month high on expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments
U.S. Treasury yields increase, with benchmark 10-year note hitting highest since July
Market prices in 91% chance of 25 basis point rate cut at Fed’s November meeting
Strong U.S. economic data driving divergence in central bank policies globally
Dollar index up nearly 3.3% on the month, aiming for its strongest month since April 2022
U.S. presidential election influencing currency moves with potential impact of inflationary policies
Euro down slightly against the dollar, while ECB comments indicate potential inflation decrease in euro zone
Bank of Japan monitoring risks from rising import prices as yen weakens ahead of general election on Oct. 27- ₿ Bitcoin shows slight decline to $67,572.00 in cryptocurrency market
- The U.S. dollar rose to a 2-1/2 month high on expectations of a more tempered rate cut path by the Federal Reserve.
- Positive economic data has led to higher U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching 4.222%.
Markets are pricing in a 91% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Fed’s November meeting, compared to complete pricing for a cut a month ago.- Currency movements are also influenced by expectations of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
- The euro edged down while the yen weakened against the dollar, with the Bank of Japan facing challenges as the nation prepares for a general election.
- The US dollar is close to its high for August
- Economic data, US interest rates, and the upcoming US election are important factors to watch
- The dollar’s performance could be influenced by these events and developments
- IMF predicts global inflation to cool from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025
Central banks cut interest rates following the slowdown in inflation after aggressive rate hikes
IMF upgrades economic expectations for the United States in 2024
Growth in the U.S. expected to decelerate to 2.2% in 2025 as government seeks to curb deficits
China’s economic growth to slow to 4.5% in 2025 due to housing market collapse and weak consumer confidence- European countries in the euro currency expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024
Global trade is expected to grow 3.1% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, improving on 2023’s rate
Dollar Strength and Central Bank Policies:
- Dollar rises to fresh 2-1/2 month high on expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments
- Dollar index up nearly 3.3% on the month, aiming for its strongest month since April 2022
- The U.S. dollar rose to a 2-1/2 month high on expectations of a more tempered rate cut path by the Federal Reserve.
Market Trends and Economic Factors:
- U.S. Treasury yields increase, with benchmark 10-year note hitting highest since July
- Market prices in 91% chance of 25 basis point rate cut at Fed’s November meeting
- Strong U.S. economic data driving divergence in central bank policies globally
Currency Movements and International Events:
- U.S. presidential election influencing currency moves with potential impact of inflationary policies
- Euro down slightly against the dollar, while ECB comments indicate potential inflation decrease in euro zone
- Bank of Japan monitoring risks from rising import prices as yen weakens ahead of general election on Oct. 27
Economic Predictions and Global Outlook:
- ₿ Bitcoin shows slight decline to $67,572.00 in cryptocurrency market
- Central banks cut interest rates following the slowdown in inflation after aggressive rate hikes
- IMF predicts global inflation to cool from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025
- IMF upgrades economic expectations for the United States in 2024
- Growth in the U.S. expected to decelerate to 2.2% in 2025 as government seeks to curb deficits
- China’s economic growth to slow to 4.5% in 2025 due to housing market collapse and weak consumer confidence
- European countries in the euro currency expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024
- Global trade is expected to grow 3.1% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, improving on 2023’s rate