US Economy Falters: 818,000 Fewer Jobs Added than Previously Reported

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Key Takeaways:

  • 💵 The dollar weakened to a more than one-year low against the euro and sterling following revised job data.
  • 🗣️ Markets await Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech for clues on labor market view and potential rate cuts.
  • 📉 Fed officials are leaning towards an interest rate cut at their next meeting in September.
  • 📊 Traders are pricing in a 38% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next month.
  • 📉 Concerns of a recession led to larger rate cut expectations on unexpected job gains and increased unemployment rate.
  • 🌍 European data may not support the euro’s strength, signaling a potential technical move in FX.
  • 💼 The U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported
  • 📉 The revised job gains suggest a slower economic recovery than initially thought
  • 📊 The discrepancy was due to the misclassification of workers during the pandemic
  • 📋 The Bureau of Labor Statistics will make changes to prevent future errors
  • 💼 US job growth in the past year was weaker than initially reported
  • 📉 818,000 fewer jobs in March 2024 than initially estimated
  • 📆 Largest downward revision since 2009
  • 💵 Average monthly job gain from April 2023 to March 2024 was 173,500
  • 📊 Downward adjustments were limited to the private sector
  • 🏭 Job growth still historically strong despite revisions
  • 📈 Preliminary revisions expected to impact Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions
  • 🕒 Revision process highlights need for accurate economic data
  • 📊 Economic data is revised often for better accuracy
  • 📋 BLS conducts annual benchmark revisions for employment data
  • 📷 QCEW provides more comprehensive employment data at a lag
  • 📉 818,000 fewer jobs added to the U.S. economy than initially reported
  • 📉 Unemployment rate rose to 4% in August
  • 💵 Average hourly earnings increased by 0.6%

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

  • 🗣️ Markets await Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech for clues on labor market view and potential rate cuts.
  • 📉 Fed officials are leaning towards an interest rate cut at their next meeting in September.
  • 📊 Traders are pricing in a 38% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next month.
  • 📈 Preliminary revisions expected to impact Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions

Employment Data Revisions

  • 💼 The U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported
  • 📉 The revised job gains suggest a slower economic recovery than initially thought
  • 📊 The discrepancy was due to the misclassification of workers during the pandemic
  • 📋 The Bureau of Labor Statistics will make changes to prevent future errors

Job Growth and Economic Recovery

  • 💼 US job growth in the past year was weaker than initially reported
  • 📉 818,000 fewer jobs in March 2024 than initially estimated
  • 📆 Largest downward revision since 2009
  • 💵 Average monthly job gain from April 2023 to March 2024 was 173,500
  • 🏭 Job growth still historically strong despite revisions

Euro Strength and Market Impact

  • 💵 The dollar weakened to a more than one-year low against the euro and sterling following revised job data.
  • 🌍 European data may not support the euro’s strength, signaling a potential technical move in FX.

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