Key Takeaways:
- 💼 Citi analysts proposed three scenarios for the EUR/USD in response to French legislative elections
- 📈 The most bullish scenario predicts an EUR/USD rise to 1.0810 if Macron remains president
- 📉 Citi estimates downside risks are greater than upside risks for the Euro Dollar pair in the current situation
- 🤝 Deadlocked Parliament or National Rally-led government scenario predicts EUR/USD at 1.0730 if Macron remains
- 🌍 National Rally or New Ecological and Social People’s Union-led government scenario predicts EUR/USD at 1.0410 if Macron resigns
- 📉 Macron’s popularity ratings plunged after the dissolution, with discussion of alliances and strategies between major political players
- 🗳️ Four main blocs in the election: Ensemble (pro-Macron forces), New Popular Front (main left-wing parties), National Rally, and LR candidates supported by RN
- 🚨 Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly sparked protests and preparations for the upcoming elections
- 🗳️ Official results presented by the Ministry of the Interior may slightly differ from other sources due to candidate reclassification efforts
Article:
The EUR/USD has been a focal point in response to the French legislative elections, with Citi analysts proposing three scenarios for its future trajectory. The most bullish scenario predicts an increase to 1.0810 if President Macron remains in power. However, Citi estimates that downside risks outweigh the upside risks for the Euro Dollar pair in the current situation.
As the French election unfolds, various outcomes could impact the EUR/USD targets. A deadlocked Parliament or a National Rally-led government scenario predicts the exchange rate at 1.0730 if Macron remains, while a National Rally or New Ecological and Social People’s Union-led government scenario suggests a rate of 1.0410 if Macron resigns. The dissolution of the National Assembly by Macron has led to a plunge in his popularity ratings, prompting discussions among major political players regarding alliances and strategies.
During the election process, four main blocs have emerged, including Ensemble, New Popular Front, National Rally, and LR candidates supported by RN. Macron’s actions have sparked protests and preparations for the upcoming elections, with official results potentially differing slightly from other sources due to candidate reclassification efforts. These developments highlight the interconnectedness of political events and their impact on financial markets, particularly the EUR/USD exchange rate.